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Technical Analysis Strategy

A technical analysis strategy involves analyzing a stock’s historical price movements to determine the likely future direction of the stock.

Let’s consider technical analysis as a strategy . . .

Why technical analysis works

Stocks tend to move in predictable ways some of the time. If you examine enough stock charts you’ll start to see certain patterns in buying and selling behavior.

By recognizing the patterns with the strongest correlation to share price movement, a technician (a practitioner of technical analysis) is able to predict, with a certain level of confidence, the likelihood of the stock moving in a particular direction.

There is also a less sophisticated type of technician who simply buys stocks that are in strong uptrends. They hold the stock as long as it continues to rise. As soon as it starts to decline significantly, they sell.

How technical analysis works

Similar to fundamental analysis, technicians use special stock screeners to find stocks that are displaying the behaviors they’re looking for.

Once found, they filter out the stocks that show the most potential based on their trading style.

There are different types of technicians. How they trade depends on their chosen approach. Here are some common ones:

  • Day traders
    Buy and sell stocks in the same trading day using technical indicators.
  • Swing traders
    Trade the “swings” within major trends.
  • Momentum traders
    Buy stocks when they’re trending strongly and sell once the trend has appeared to reverse or dissipate.
  • Position traders
    Buy when a stock breaks out from a trading range.

One thing that all successful traders will have in common is their “trading plan”. Their trading plan contains the rules that they must follow with a high degree of discipline if they want to be successful.

The trading plan will consist of items such as:

  • trade entry and exit rules
  • stop loss strategy
  • capital allocation rules
  • diversification considerations
  • how the technician will keep track (i.e. document) of their trades

With a technical analysis strategy in particular, the allocation and preservation of capital is most important. Not all trades will be profitable. A number of successful traders report that their success rate is around 65%. This means that 65% of their trades are profitable trades, and 35% are losing trades. As long as the winning trades substantially outweigh the losing trades, you’re winning.

Tactics of technical analysis

A technical analysis strategy requires a more watchful approach than long-term buy and hold type strategies. Markets can change directions fast. You need to be “on the ball”.

Here are some general guidelines:

  • have a trading plan and stick to it
  • trade the strong trends
  • manage your losses
  • know what type of market you’re in before you trade (bull, bear or something in between)
  • analyze industry trends
  • keep it simple

Advantages of technical analysis

A technical analysis strategy doesn’t require fundamental analysis. You just trade based on what you see on the chart.

Technical analysis is a shorter-term strategy so you realize profits sooner.

Technical analysis takes less time than fundamental analysis.

Disadvantages of technical analysis

Trades don’t always work out.

You need to be alert for the duration of the trade and watch the market closely.

Emotions need to be controlled and discipline needs to be exercised if the technician is to be successful.

There are periods when trading will not be fruitful.

Who uses technical analysis as a strategy?

  • Ed Seykota – introduced computerized trading systems
  • Jesse Livermore – old time trader who built and lost fortunes over his trading career in the early 1900s
  • William O'Neil – founder of Investor’s Business Daily (he combines fundamental analysis with technical analysis)
  • Richard Dennis – supposedly made $200 million in ten years
  • Martin Schwartz – made his fortune speculating futures and options
  • Larry Hite – famous fund manager and stock trader


Stock market strategies:

Fundamental Analysis – the company’s financial numbers and its story

Technical analysis – examining stock charts and technical indicators

Value Investing – buying good companies at the right time

Growth investing – buying companies that are growing fast

Income investing – buying companies for their dividends

Index investing – buying into a stock market index fund

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